Rebirth: The Financial Giant - Chapter 966

Lu Ming nodded and said: “It can only be said that the possibility is very high. Whether it is a conspiracy theory of CME Group or Laomei will not be discussed. Judging from the objective supply and demand relationship and the current general environment, international oil prices have to bottom out. .”

Everyone was surprised. The largest production reduction agreement in history was reached only yesterday, which should stabilize the market. Lu Ming’s diametrically opposed view is also quite surprising.

Although it was a surprise, Tiansheng Capital’s record was placed, and his judgment had to be taken seriously.

At this time, Lu Ming said calmly and orderly: “The global pandemic of love has dragged the global economy into a quagmire of recession, and the demand for crude oil has shrunk significantly. Affected by the love, many countries around the world have taken measures such as prevention and control to control it. As the situation spreads, these measures are continuing to have a severe impact on the economy.”

“Tiansheng Capital’s internal analysis estimates that global economic output is expected to decline by about 4% to 4.3% this year, and the world’s major economies have experienced a decline in gdp to varying degrees. We estimate that North America and the euro area will decline by 4.3% and 8.3% respectively. %, the recession is more severe than the 2008 financial tsunami, and our country will be the only one of the world’s major economies to achieve positive growth, which can be called a thriving economy.”

As soon as this remark came out, the participants were once again surprised.

Lu Ming then further deconstructed: “Although we lost a lot in the first quarter, in exchange for the control of the situation and the continuous resumption of work and production, the world has entered a pandemic and the global supply chain has collapsed. It is expected that our export orders will be in the next year or so. There will be substantial growth, because only the Greater China region can produce large-scale production, and there are complete industrial categories, so you can place an order for whatever you want.”

“The global economic recession will inevitably lead to a sharp reduction in the crude oil demand market, which is the main reason. Similarly, according to the latest monthly report analysis within Tiansheng Capital, it is estimated that global oil demand this year will decrease by 9.3 million barrels per day compared with the previous year. Oil demand was down 29 million bpd from a year earlier.”

Having said this, Lu Ming paused for a moment, quickly organized new content in his mind, and then said: “The production reduction agreement reached yesterday is not to boost market demand in a sense, let’s not talk about it, they stabilize oil prices. The probability of failure of the measures is very high.”

You must know that the country has set targets this year. To significantly import the strategic reserve of oil prices, demand is the fundamental. As the world’s largest oil import consumer market in Greater China, if you don’t speak up here, why can oil prices rise?

The big dog and the Russians are fighting an oil price war, and the crazy production capacity is like diabetes incontinence. Is the output oil going to the sea? The pollution would be great, and the losses would be unacceptable and impossible to drain.

So demand is the key.

Lu Ming continued: “Whether it is OPEC+’s first two-month production cut of 9.7 million barrels per day next month, or 8 million barrels per day in the second half of this year, the production reduction agreement is only to stabilize oil prices, not to stimulate Oil prices are rising and demand is rising.”

“The reason why I say this is because of the international crude oil price war last month, the sharp increase in crude oil production has caused crude oil prices to continue to plummet. It’s like correcting the previous behavior of Saat and Oros that disregarded the objective laws of market conditions and increased production.”

At this moment, Lu Ming paused for a moment. The attendees saw Lu Ming’s video screen, he was holding a tablet, and then put it in front of the camera and showed it to the attendees, and laughed at the same time: “Everyone, please see, the price of wti crude oil futures has risen by +7.64% in early trading and has turned down more than -1% at this moment, and Brent crude oil has also fallen by more than -2% from +5.59%.”

One of the leaders at the meeting suddenly sighed and laughed in a mocking tone: “You guys who do deals are really thieves.”

“Heroes see the same thing.” Lu Ming smiled and added: “It seems that a group of savvy traders in the market also know that there is still a big gap between the so-called production reduction plan and market demand. At present, the global y There is still no obvious turning point in the situation, and the global supply chain and industrial chain are still in a state of shutdown. In the context of economic recession, the production reduction plan is not to boost market demand, and the current trend of oil prices has been proved.

Lu Ming said with a smile: “The oil price is really going to come to an inflection point, it depends on our attitude. This year, the task of Tiansheng Capital alone will win the purchase and purchase quota of 500 million barrels of crude oil. Soaring to the 1 billion barrel mark, this is a big demand-side expectation for the crude oil market.”

Obviously, under the current situation, almost no country or region can eat 1 billion barrels.

But in Greater China, yes!

Help oil-producing countries to support oil prices, but it can’t be in vain. The large-scale production capacity of big dogs, bears, etc. in the first quarter can be digested by the Greater China market, thereby offsetting the extra surge in the first quarter that violated the objective market conditions. capacity, in order to find a normal market balance point at both ends of supply and demand.

However, the wholesale price must be paid, especially the 500 million barrels target obtained by Tiansheng Capital. Lu Ming will not be a big injustice, and the other party will not buy it if the price is too high.

With so much oil being produced, the cost of barrels and storage can’t stand it. The barrels are almost more expensive than the oil, not to mention that the storage is already full, and the output is still going on.

Tiansheng Capital is indeed eager to exchange the green paper tickets in its hands for physical resources, but it cannot be easily revealed.

It is worth mentioning that Tiansheng Capital implements the strategy of “buying globally, buying globally”, which are serious industrial customers who are rushing to physical delivery, so the strategy is different.

However, many of the participants in the current video conference are speculators who participate in too many financial derivatives, and they themselves do not have the ability to physically deliver.

The meeting lasted until 18 o’clock and ended, and what should be said and suggestions were given. As for whether to adopt this suggestion, UU Reading www.uukanshu. It is not up to Lu Mingneng whether com is implemented or not.

As the video conference ended, the leaders of each line also held a meeting within their own homes to discuss the matter.

After some discussions, CCB, ICBC, etc. decided to immediately move the position to the month, and start to close the position on the same day. By tomorrow, April 15, the 2005 contract will be closed, and the position will be moved to the 2006 contract.

The liquidity of the current contract is very good, and it is easy to close and withdraw.

But not everyone agrees with Lu Ming’s point of view and adopts it. Yuanyoubao still did not do it, and its parent agency, Zhongxing, also participated in the video conference. selling point.

This operation…

One brother kept shaking his head when he saw it, what else could he do? I really couldn’t help, I could only receive the meat cutting plate of Yuanyoubao with tears.

…

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